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Abstract Climate change is expected to induce shifts in the composition, structure and functioning of Arctic tundra ecosystems. Increases in the frequency and severity of tundra fires have the potential to catalyse vegetation transitions with far‐reaching local, regional and global consequences.We propose that post‐fire tundra recovery, coupled with climate change, may not necessarily lead to pre‐fire conditions. Our hypothesis, based on surveys and literature, suggests two climate–fire driven trajectories. One trajectory results in increased woody vegetation under low fire frequency; the other results in grass dominance under high frequency.Future research should address uncertainties regarding possible tundra ecosystem shifts linked to fires, using methods that encompass greater temporal and spatial scales than previously addressed. More case studies, especially in underrepresented regions and ecosystem types, are essential to broaden the empirical basis for forecasts and potential fire management strategies.Synthesis. Our review synthesises current knowledge on post‐fire vegetation trajectories in Arctic tundra ecosystems, highlighting potential transitions and alternative ecosystem states and their implications. We discuss challenges in defining and predicting these trajectories as well as future directions. 

Arctic biodiversity is under threat from both climate-induced environmental change and anthropogenic activity. However, the rapid rate of change and the challenging conditions for studying Arctic environments mean that many research questions must be answered before we can strategically allocate resources for management. Addressing threats to biodiversity in the Arctic is further complicated by the region's complex geopolitics, as eight countries claim jurisdiction over the area, with multiple local considerations such as Indigenous sovereignty and resource rights. Here, we identify research priorities to serve as a starting point for addressing the most pressing threats to Arctic biodiversity. We began by collecting pressing research questions about Arctic biodiversity, thematizing them as either threats or actions, and then categorizing them further into 18 groups. Then, drawing on cross-disciplinary and global expertise of professionals in Arctic science, management, and policy, we considered the barriers to answering these questions and proposed potential solutions that could be implemented if barriers were overcome. Overall, our horizon scan provides an expert assessment of threats (e.g., species’ responses to climate change) and actions (e.g., a lack of fundamental information regarding Arctic biodiversity) needing attention and is intended to guide future conservation action within the Arctic. 

Abstract The Arctic is warming four times faster than the global average¹and plant communities are responding through shifts in species abundance, composition and distribution^2–4. However, the direction and magnitude of local changes in plant diversity in the Arctic have not been quantified. Using a compilation of 42,234 records of 490 vascular plant species from 2,174 plots across the Arctic, here we quantified temporal changes in species richness and composition through repeat surveys between 1981 and 2022. We also identified the geographical, climatic and biotic drivers behind these changes. We found greater species richness at lower latitudes and warmer sites, but no indication that, on average, species richness had changed directionally over time. However, species turnover was widespread, with 59% of plots gaining and/or losing species. Proportions of species gains and losses were greater where temperatures had increased the most. Shrub expansion, particularly of erect shrubs, was associated with greater species losses and decreasing species richness. Despite changes in plant composition, Arctic plant communities did not become more similar to each other, suggesting no biotic homogenization so far. Overall, Arctic plant communities changed in richness and composition in different directions, with temperature and plant–plant interactions emerging as the main drivers of change. Our findings demonstrate how climate and biotic drivers can act in concert to alter plant composition, which could precede future biodiversity changes that are likely to affect ecosystem function, wildlife habitats and the livelihoods of Arctic peoples^5,6. 

Abstract Climate change is leading to species redistributions. In the tundra biome, shrubs are generally expanding, but not all tundra shrub species will benefit from warming. Winner and loser species, and the characteristics that may determine success or failure, have not yet been fully identified. Here, we investigate whether past abundance changes, current range sizes and projected range shifts derived from species distribution models are related to plant trait values and intraspecific trait variation. We combined 17,921 trait records with observed past and modelled future distributions from 62 tundra shrub species across three continents. We found that species with greater variation in seed mass and specific leaf area had larger projected range shifts, and projected winner species had greater seed mass values. However, trait values and variation were not consistently related to current and projected ranges, nor to past abundance change. Overall, our findings indicate that abundance change and range shifts will not lead to directional modifications in shrub trait composition, since winner and loser species share relatively similar trait spaces. 

Abstract Despite the importance of high-latitude surface energy budgets (SEBs) for land-climate interactions in the rapidly changing Arctic, uncertainties in their prediction persist. Here, we harmonize SEB observations across a network of vegetated and glaciated sites at circumpolar scale (1994–2021). Our variance-partitioning analysis identifies vegetation type as an important predictor for SEB-components during Arctic summer (June-August), compared to other SEB-drivers including climate, latitude and permafrost characteristics. Differences among vegetation types can be of similar magnitude as between vegetation and glacier surfaces and are especially high for summer sensible and latent heat fluxes. The timing of SEB-flux summer-regimes (when daily mean values exceed 0 Wm −2 ) relative to snow-free and -onset dates varies substantially depending on vegetation type, implying vegetation controls on snow-cover and SEB-flux seasonality. Our results indicate complex shifts in surface energy fluxes with land-cover transitions and a lengthening summer season, and highlight the potential for improving future Earth system models via a refined representation of Arctic vegetation types.